The impact of the regional conflict has been substantial. Tourism establishments, the MICE sector, and transport operators such as airlines have all been hit significantly, and hotel occupancies in markets such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi have also been impacted. Both are major conference hubs, and most key conferences simply didn't take place, and that had a big impact on conference organisers as well as the wider tourism ecosystem.
But we see signs of recovery; business travel is one of the first phases we see returning, supported by major conferences and events.
That’s why we have these large-scale and reputable conferences coming back to the region, and Arabian Travel Market is an important example of that. These major events bring business travellers back first, but they also play a wider role in rebuilding business confidence and creating positive sentiment around the market.
It’s strongly expected that the second phase to return will be the younger travellers and repeat visitors who have been to the region before. These are the travellers who already know the destinations and the tourism offerings. The fundamentals that made these destinations attractive before the disruption have not changed. The UAE has built a very broad tourism proposition, from hospitality and entertainment to major events and cultural experiences.
The third phase is likely to be more cautious travel segments, including families and those visiting friends and relatives, which we expect to strengthen towards the end of the year and into the first quarter of 2027.
Travel advisories and the position of international carriers will naturally have an impact on how quickly that confidence returns. The return of major international events puts the region back in front of international audiences and helps create the positive sentiment needed for the wider tourism market to follow.
Will travel behaviours and travel patterns fundamentally change? Very simply, the answer is no. Everyone loves to travel.
We saw a similar pattern during COVID, when people questioned whether travel behaviour would change and whether people would become less willing to travel. That was not actually the case. When people are unable to travel, their hunger and willingness to travel can actually become greater. We saw the term ‘revenge travel’ emerge during that period, and we are likely to see some of that appetite again. People will still want to travel, and they will still value the tourism product that Dubai and Abu Dhabi have built over time.
When we look at the UAE more broadly, tremendous tourism infrastructure has been built over the past two decades.
Over the past few years, we have seen governments in the region push strongly to establish another important pillar of the tourism offering, which is culture. There is a strong focus on permanent cultural assets such as museums, opera houses and concert venues, alongside temporary cultural experiences including art exhibitions and shows.
When we look at the figures from our cultural report, the UAE is leading the region across several areas, with 74 public museums and 223,000 people employed in the cultural sector in 2025. Culture and creative industries contributed an estimated 3.9 per cent of UAE GDP in 2025, the highest share in the GCC.
* Stolz is Partner – Tourism at Roland Berger Middle East