Gulf airlines spearhead global passenger growth in January

Global passenger demand rose 3.8% in January from a year earlier, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said today (March 2), with Middle Eastern carriers outpacing most regions despite a broader slowdown in growth at the start of the year.

In the Middle East, traffic rose 7.4% as capacity climbed 8.0%, leaving load factor at 83.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from a year earlier. 

Regionally, Africa posted the fastest overall growth in January, with traffic up 17.9% year-on-year on a 16.3% increase in capacity, lifting load factor to 77.0%. Latin America and the Caribbean saw demand rise 8.3%, while capacity increased 6.0%, pushing load factor up 1.8 percentage points to 85.3%, the highest among regions.

European carriers recorded 6% demand growth, while capacity rose 5.1%, lifting load factor to 80.2%.

Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), increased 3.5% year-on-year, while the load factor edged up 0.2 percentage points to a record 82.0% for the month of January.

International traffic grew 5.9% compared with January 2025, with capacity up 5.8% and load factors reaching a record 82.5%, up 0.1 percentage point. 

Domestic demand was broadly flat, rising just 0.1% year-on-year, as capacity fell 0.4%. The domestic load factor rose 0.4 percentage points to 81.2%, also a January record, said IATA in its statement, adding that a shift in the timing of the Lunar New Year masked what the industry body described as solid underlying growth momentum heading into 2026.

IATA pointed out that the holiday typically drives a surge in travel demand, particularly in Asia.

“The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8% expansion in January, but the fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026,” stated IATA Director General Willie Walsh in a statement. 

Walsh said the recent events had introduced uncertainty around traffic flows and fuel costs, and called on governments to ensure civilian aviation remains protected amid ongoing hostilities. 

He also warned that rising infrastructure charges, regulatory burdens and energy transition costs were weighing on airlines, noting that 2025 recorded the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999.

Asia-Pacific airlines saw a more modest 1.4% rise in traffic as capacity increased 1.8%, with load factor slipping 0.3 percentage points to 83.9%, reflecting the Lunar New Year timing shift. North American carriers posted 0.8% traffic growth on a 0.1% rise in capacity, with load factor improving 0.5 percentage points to 80.2%, stated IATA in a report.

In international markets alone, all regions recorded expansion. Latin American airlines led with an 11.4% increase in demand, followed by African carriers at 11.7%. Middle Eastern airlines reported 7.2% growth, European carriers 6.3%, Asia-Pacific airlines 4.4% and North American carriers 3.4%.

Domestic markets were weighed down by traffic declines in China, Australia and the United States, although Brazil stood out with a 10.9% year-on-year increase in traffic, partially offsetting weakness elsewhere.-TradeArabia News Service