The Global Restaurant Investment Forum (GRIF) and boutique hospitality consultancy Juniper Strategy have launched the UAE Hospitality Industry Barometer, a research-led report combining real-time operator insight with analysis of past global crises to show how hospitality businesses are performing today, why confidence remains strong, and how the sector is expected to recover.
The report draws on real-time input from 30
senior hospitality leaders collectively operating over 400 venues across the
UAE, alongside analysis of tourist recovery patterns through past global
crises.
While not fully representative of the
market, this provides a robust directional snapshot of current trading
conditions and sentiment, alongside a broader view of potential recovery
scenarios.
Its purpose is straightforward: to replace
noise with a grounded, quantified view of current conditions, and to give
operators, investors and decision-makers a clearer framework through which to
interpret events, assess risk, and understand the likely trajectory of
recovery.
The Barometer shows a market under
short-term pressure but still confident in the sector's medium-term outlook.
Average like-for-like performance among the
sample is down 27%, but that figure masks a wide spread of outcomes.
Much of this variation is location-driven.
Nearly half - 48% - say their residential locations are outperforming the rest
of their estate, while tourist-heavy and office-focused locations are under
greater strain.
Alongside softer demand, the report notes
continued cost pressure across the sector, with supplier costs up by an average
of 13% among the operator sample.
In response, many operators are acting
defensively: freezing recruitment, reducing labour costs, simplifying menus,
renegotiating rents and supplier terms, and protecting cash flow.
Despite these pressures, the report
highlights strong confidence in the recovery path ahead. Net confidence in the
hospitality business outlook over the next six months stands at +3, rising
sharply to +73 over the following twelve, suggesting the sector views the
current disruption as serious, but not structural.
This confidence is supported by the UAE
market’s resilience and its recent track record of rapid and coordinated
post-Covid recovery.
The UAE’s foodservice market - estimated at
roughly $19 billion in 2025 - is built on a diversified demand base spanning
residents, tourists and corporate travel, a structural advantage that positions
the sector well for swift recovery once conditions stabilise.
Historical precedent also helps frame the
likely range of recovery scenarios.
The analysis of 24 major global crises
shows that tourist demand tends to recover quickly once perceived risk
subsides, with median visitor numbers returning to baseline within a year and
exceeding pre-crisis levels by year two.
Looking further ahead, the long-term
drivers of the UAE hospitality sector remain firmly in place: a young,
fast-growing and increasingly affluent resident population; a highly
diversified demand base spanning residents, tourists and corporate travel; exceptional
global connectivity as a major international aviation hub; and continued
investment in tourism infrastructure, including developments such as the Wynn
Resort in Ras Al Khaimah, the expansion of Dubai Islands, and the
transformation of Expo City Dubai.
Together, these factors have historically
enabled the market to recover quickly from disruption and continue to support
its long-term growth trajectory.
Flo Graham-Dixon, Founder of Juniper
Strategy, said: “Our research shows there is no universal experience of the
current market. Operators in residential locations are trading very differently
from those exposed to tourism or corporate demand, and that gap matters when
planning for recovery. Confidence over the next twelve months is well-founded -
history shows these disruptions tend to resolve faster than they feel in the
moment - but the operators who navigate this best will be those who understand
their own position within that picture, rather than waiting for a market-wide
recovery to lift them. In that context, the most valuable role the industry can
play is to share insight, support one another, and apply those learnings in a
way that reflects individual circumstances.”
Jennifer Pettinger, Founder of GRIF, said: “We created the Barometer to support the GRIF community and the wider industry with a clearer, more informed read of the current environment. There is no doubt this is a challenging moment, but it is also a nuanced one, and the experience is not the same for everyone. The hope is that this report helps operators, investors and decision-makers better understand what is market-wide, what is more location-specific, and what history tells us about how recovery may unfold. We see this as an ongoing resource for the industry, and we would love more operators to contribute over time to broaden representation and strengthen its value.” -TradeArabia News Service