Travel, tourism experts upbeat on industry's growth

“Now we can really say the pandemic is over," said Charuta Fadnis, Vice President of the tourism market research company Phocuswright, on Monday at the opening of ITB Berlin, the World’s Largest Travel Trade Show. 

 

In 2023, the travel market not only recovered from its slump during the crisis of the Covid pandemic, it even surpassed 2019 levels. 

 

However, during a panel discussion at ITB Berlin, Fadnis cautioned that growth rates would level out. “Pent-up demand has been satisfied." 

 

What was more, a large part of the turnover was due to price rises rather than an increase in travellers, he said.

 

Regions were recovering at different speeds. In 2019 North America, Europe/the Middle East and Asia were more or less equal, each accounting for one-third of bookings. In 2022 North America surged ahead with 40 per cent, while Asia trailed significantly, even lagging behind Europe. Fadnis expected the percentages in 2025 to mirror those prior to the pandemic.

 

There remained many challenges, said Fadnis. Inflation was weaker, but global flashpoints bore new risks. To that could be added the biggest challenge: climate change. It was the industry’s responsibility to take action here. Individual travellers did not see it as their task to actively participate in every sustainability initiative.

 

Norbert Fiebig, President of the German Travel Association (DRV), called for policymakers to financially support the industry’s eco-friendly transformation.

 

Fiebig also described climate action and sustainability as tomorrow’s most important tasks. The biggest challenge for the tourism industry was the fact that mobility without adequate means, i.e. air travel, was unthinkable. He called upon the federal government to rethink its recent decision to stop funding research on sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).

 

Regarding turnover trends, the President of the DRV focused on the German travel market. Here too, bookings for 2024 had already surpassed 2019 levels. The figures for the winter holiday season, which had just ended, were 11 per cent higher than for the same period in 2019. He anticipated 13 per cent growth for this summer. Sun and beach vacations continued to top the list of German holidaymakers. Turkey had overtaken Spain as the number one destination, and Greece had also become more popular. Egypt was in fourth place, he said.

 

Fiebig concluded by appealing to holidaymakers and stakeholders at ITB Berlin: “Let us travel in order to make the world a better place."

 

FOCUS ON ENVIRONMENT

Meanwhile,  Jeremy Sampson, CEO of the Travel Foundation, said the massive growth of global tourism will lead to an enormous increase in emissions if the approach remains one of business as usual.

 

Highlighting his study, “Envisioning Tourism in 2030 and Beyond”, Sampson emphasised during the Future Track at ITB Berlin 2024: “We must allow the environmentally friendly areas to expand, and restrict those that harm the environment.” The main focus here is on regulating air travel.

 

The study provides a model for achieving climate neutrality and the model is dynamic but it is feasible – however it will require a great effort, he said.

 

The basis for this study by the Travel Foundation is provided by a mix of 40 measures in six categories: compensating for greenhouse gases, electrification and a more efficient offer, infrastructural development to protect the climate, the development of sustainable fuels, the imposition of taxes and levies, and the selective promotion of more environmentally friendly travel behaviour. Sampson believes that the target of net zero can really be achieved if there are systematic combined efforts to implement all the necessary measures.

 

Based on the predicted growth there is only one scenario that can enable the target of net zero to achieved by 2050, according to Sampson: Far-reaching changes will be needed, for example in terms of travel behaviour and the structuring of the offer. These include a reduction in the distances travelled, a greater expansion of land-based travel, a reduction in the expansion of air travel, limiting long haul flights to 2019 levels, and the use of 100 per cent renewable energy by accommodation facilities, cars etc. Furthermore investments must be made in infrastructure and technology in order to make travel climate friendly.

 

In 2019 air travel accounted for just two per cent of all journeys, while at the same time producing the highest CO2 emissions. Failure to impose restrictions would see a four-fold increase in the number of flights by 2050, accounting for 41 per cent of the total emissions by tourism. There are only two options for regulating tourism emissions: systematic curbing of global tourism or an equally systematic introduction of net zero travel. -TradeArabia News Service