18 November 2017

Aviation


$5.3 trillion worth of aircraft required
July 2017 1314

The world’s passenger aircraft fleet above 100 seats is set to more than double in the next 20 years to over 40,000 planes as traffic is set to grow at 4.4 per cent per year, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast 2017-2036.

Over this period, increasing numbers of first time flyers, rising disposable income spent on air travel, expanding tourism, industry liberalisation, new routes and evolving airline business models are driving a need for 34,170 passenger and 730 freighter aircraft worth a combined total of $5.3 trillion. Over 70 per cent of new units are single aisle with 60 per cent for growth and 40 per cent for replacement of less fuel efficient aircraft.

A doubling in the commercial fleet over the next 20 years sees a need for 530,000 new pilots and 550,000 new maintenance engineers, and provides Airbus’ global services business a catalyst to grow. Airbus has expanded its global network of training locations from five to 16 in the space of three years.

Air traffic growth is highest in emerging markets such as China, India, the rest of Asia and Latin America and almost double the 3.2 per cent per year growth forecast in mature markets such as North America and Western Europe. Emerging markets currently home to 6.4 billion of the world’s 7.4 billion population will account for nearly 50 per cent of the world’s private consumption by 2036.

“Air travel is remarkably resilient to external shocks and doubles every 15 years,” said John Leahy, chief operating officer – customers, Airbus Commercial Aircraft. “Asia Pacific continues to be an engine for growth, with domestic China to become the world’s largest market. Disposable incomes are growing and in emerging economies the number of people taking a flight will nearly triple between now and 2036.”

Over the next 20 years Asia Pacific is set to take 41 per cent of new deliveries, followed by Europe with 20 per cent, North America at 16 per cent, Middle East 7 per cent and Africa 3 per cent. Middle-class numbers will almost double to nearly five billion as wealth creation makes aviation even more accessible particularly in emerging economies where spending on air travel services is set to double.

In the twin aisle segment, such as the A330 Family, A350 XWB Family and the A380, Airbus forecasts a requirement for some 10,100 aircraft valued at $2.9 trillion. In 2016, the A321 represented over 40 per cent of single aisle deliveries and over 60 per cent of single aisle orders.  

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